Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 05 2020 | 2152 | 23394 | 68 | 7 | 376 | 535 |
| October 06 2020 | 2184 | 23558 | 69 | 7 | 344 | 534 |
| October 07 2020 | 2211 | 24159 | 69 | 8 | 324 | 508 |
| October 08 2020 | 2264 | 24352 | 71 | 8 | 324 | 530 |
| October 09 2020 | 2308 | 24857 | 72 | 8 | 339 | 532 |
| October 10 2020 | 2341 | 25137 | 74 | 8 | 341 | 501 |
| October 11 2020 | 2393 | 25289 | 75 | 8 | 377 | 506 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.9% | 11 | 0.1% | 19 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 14 | 7.9 | 18.3% | 69 | 0.51% | 89 | 0.65% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 8.0 | 25.2% | 95 | 0.45% | 133 | 0.64% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 5.0 | 12.2% | 46 | 0.34% | 69 | 0.51% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 5.6 | 12.7% | 48 | 0.46% | 58 | 0.55% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 4.6 | 11.9% | 45 | 0.36% | 63 | 0.5% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3.7 | 9.5% | 36 | 0.31% | 44 | 0.38% |
| 70+ | 5 | 2.9 | 7.2% | 27 | 0.26% | 35 | 0.33% |
| All ages | 52 | 38.6 | 100% | 377 | 0.36% | 506 | 0.48% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 05 2020 | 649 | 15501 | 27 | 0 | 132 | 169 |
| October 06 2020 | 667 | 15620 | 30 | 0 | 145 | 185 |
| October 07 2020 | 698 | 15761 | 29 | 0 | 152 | 209 |
| October 08 2020 | 730 | 15930 | 30 | 0 | 175 | 232 |
| October 09 2020 | 763 | 16066 | 30 | 0 | 196 | 246 |
| October 10 2020 | 787 | 16174 | 31 | 0 | 202 | 265 |
| October 11 2020 | 812 | 16245 | 32 | 0 | 217 | 266 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.7 | 4.1% | 9 | 0.12% | 14 | 0.18% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 1.0 | 4.1% | 9 | 0.11% | 14 | 0.17% |
| 20-29 | 5 | 3.7 | 14.3% | 31 | 0.44% | 36 | 0.51% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 4.1 | 18% | 39 | 0.46% | 48 | 0.57% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 4.7 | 17.1% | 37 | 0.48% | 42 | 0.54% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 4.0 | 15.7% | 34 | 0.35% | 44 | 0.45% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 3.0 | 11.1% | 24 | 0.29% | 27 | 0.32% |
| 70+ | 5 | 2.9 | 14.7% | 32 | 0.45% | 38 | 0.53% |
| All ages | 25 | 24.4 | 100% | 217 | 0.34% | 266 | 0.41% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 05 2020 | 522 | 9150 | 24 | 6 | 78 | 102 |
| October 06 2020 | 528 | 9157 | 26 | 6 | 72 | 106 |
| October 07 2020 | 535 | 9161 | 28 | 6 | 69 | 110 |
| October 08 2020 | 553 | 9194 | 28 | 6 | 75 | 116 |
| October 09 2020 | 575 | 9300 | 28 | 6 | 93 | 131 |
| October 10 2020 | 598 | 9317 | 29 | 6 | 108 | 142 |
| October 11 2020 | 618 | 9321 | 29 | 6 | 120 | 152 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 05 2020 | 3336 | 26669 | 55 | 4 | 390 | 714 |
| October 06 2020 | 3373 | 26864 | 55 | 6 | 383 | 675 |
| October 07 2020 | 3399 | 27309 | 58 | 8 | 352 | 614 |
| October 08 2020 | 3441 | 28170 | 59 | 8 | 386 | 603 |
| October 09 2020 | 3486 | 28692 | 60 | 8 | 391 | 540 |
| October 10 2020 | 3516 | 28683 | 62 | 10 | 386 | 526 |
| October 11 2020 | 3535 | 28681 | 62 | 10 | 330 | 488 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.2% | 4 | 0.03% | 6 | 0.05% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 4.9 | 16.1% | 53 | 0.32% | 89 | 0.54% |
| 20-29 | 11 | 9.3 | 30.3% | 100 | 0.47% | 148 | 0.7% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 4.0 | 10.9% | 36 | 0.26% | 55 | 0.4% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 2.6 | 7.9% | 26 | 0.19% | 39 | 0.29% |
| 50-59 | -1 | 3.7 | 10.3% | 34 | 0.24% | 51 | 0.36% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 3.9 | 11.5% | 38 | 0.27% | 52 | 0.37% |
| 70+ | -1 | 4.9 | 11.8% | 39 | 0.3% | 48 | 0.37% |
| All ages | 19 | 33.7 | 100% | 330 | 0.28% | 488 | 0.41% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 05 2020 | 10514 | 201655 | 387 | 43 | 1169 | 1619 |
| October 06 2020 | 10671 | 203188 | 393 | 43 | 1183 | 1724 |
| October 07 2020 | 10734 | 204606 | 400 | 43 | 1127 | 1694 |
| October 08 2020 | 10841 | 206251 | 405 | 43 | 1078 | 1638 |
| October 09 2020 | 11035 | 207665 | 417 | 43 | 1178 | 1690 |
| October 10 2020 | 11240 | 208579 | 421 | 43 | 1111 | 1752 |
| October 11 2020 | 11421 | 208622 | 426 | 43 | 1220 | 1814 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 11 | 7.0 | 5.7% | 69 | 0.11% | 88 | 0.15% |
| 10-19 | 23 | 20.4 | 16% | 195 | 0.27% | 283 | 0.4% |
| 20-29 | 43 | 30.3 | 22.8% | 278 | 0.27% | 418 | 0.4% |
| 30-39 | 38 | 22.4 | 15.1% | 184 | 0.24% | 306 | 0.4% |
| 40-49 | 22 | 19.1 | 11.8% | 144 | 0.22% | 223 | 0.34% |
| 50-59 | 20 | 16.9 | 12.9% | 157 | 0.24% | 239 | 0.36% |
| 60-69 | 17 | 14.0 | 9.7% | 118 | 0.22% | 161 | 0.29% |
| 70+ | 7 | 8.3 | 6.1% | 75 | 0.15% | 96 | 0.2% |
| All ages | 181 | 138.4 | 100% | 1220 | 0.22% | 1814 | 0.33% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 05 2020 | 134359 | 1472577 | 7702 | 1381 | 23531 | 31861 |
| October 06 2020 | 136379 | 1482116 | 7810 | 1399 | 22734 | 32209 |
| October 07 2020 | 138698 | 1493304 | 7951 | 1415 | 22836 | 32766 |
| October 08 2020 | 141830 | 1506828 | 8061 | 1424 | 24242 | 33506 |
| October 09 2020 | 144818 | 1518662 | 8199 | 1440 | 24863 | 33990 |
| October 10 2020 | 147560 | 1530306 | 8319 | 1458 | 25286 | 33915 |
| October 11 2020 | 150236 | 1537877 | 8398 | 1465 | 25075 | 34374 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 93 | 82.1 | 3.2% | 812 | 0.13% | 1121 | 0.18% |
| 10-19 | 259 | 231.7 | 9.5% | 2386 | 0.32% | 3407 | 0.45% |
| 20-29 | 460 | 438.9 | 17.9% | 4485 | 0.59% | 6292 | 0.83% |
| 30-39 | 445 | 402.3 | 15.7% | 3931 | 0.52% | 5412 | 0.72% |
| 40-49 | 375 | 378.4 | 15.1% | 3777 | 0.54% | 5086 | 0.73% |
| 50-59 | 462 | 412.1 | 16.6% | 4172 | 0.51% | 5735 | 0.7% |
| 60-69 | 318 | 314.9 | 12.3% | 3078 | 0.41% | 4125 | 0.54% |
| 70+ | 264 | 250.0 | 9.7% | 2434 | 0.38% | 3196 | 0.5% |
| All ages | 2676 | 2510.4 | 100% | 25075 | 0.43% | 34374 | 0.59% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48.4 | 65.4 | 63.5 | 38.6 | 42.4 | 12.5% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41.1 | 24.4 | 13.7 | 17% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33.6 | 13.7 | 9.3 | 35% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41.3 | 53.8 | 69.5 | 33.7 | 49.3 | 10.4% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33.2 | 39.8 | 40.2 | 138.4 | 155.6 | 11.6% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 45 | 83.1 | 2510.4 | 2334.6 | 19.6% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 19.1 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.37 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-01 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1610"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges